distribution Model

parameter Determination

The purpose of the model is to simulate through to the parameter setup. as for the individual dealer and publication would have given the highest contribution in a given period

This can be achieved in two ways:

  • reduce the return
  • thus reducing the purchase, distribution and return expenses.
  • Simulated higher sales by calculating an estimated sales by selling and thereby increase the contribution.

The contribution

is based on the individual publication's current cost reduction of the following costs:
  • Shipping Rate
  • per kilo from the publisher.
  • Packaging and distribution costs
  • per. pieces.
  • Returns Processing Cost
  • per. pieces.

There may be varied in the following parameters:

  • New salgsprognoses clout 20-60% varying by 20 percentage unless the impact is abandoned. Salgsprognosens clout is a measure of how quickly sales forecast must rule on changes in actual sales, which broadly can say that 20 is slow and 60 is fast.
  • Last calculated scattering supplementary impact 20-60% varying by 20 percentage points less proliferation supplement is abandoned. Spreading addendum clout is a measure of how quickly spreading the charge should rule on changes to the sales forecast and actual sales, which broadly can say that 20 is slow and 60 is fast. (See also unusual sales observations and other exemptions for calculation)
  • services Addendum
  • from 0 to 100% varying by 10 points with less service charge is dropped. Service supplement is an expression of merdistribution to cover unforeseen fluctuations and should not be confused with sale percent.

distribution Simulation

Versions with selling day in a given period when the following are met, analyzed for the individual dealer.

  • Accept return date
  • must be exceeded. For retailers starting with 3 (Greenland and Faroe Islands) must accept the return date be exceeded by 40 days.
  • The edition can not be checked for it to be excluded from the forecast.
  • Series may not have their shelf in one of the given abnormal sales periods, for example. Easter.
  • Version must be distributed to the dealer.
  • The dealer must not have a negative net sales of series (return greater than the distribution)
  • The dealer must have posted returns of the recall which version occur. NB. This is currently not in force because of lack of rules for when a retailer has not posted return. (See unusual sales observation).
  • Dealer sales observation is unusual defined as a deviation from the sales forecast of more than a number of times spread in less than a number of successive editions. This means that if several consecutive udgavers sales observation is unusual, they are perhaps not so unusual after all.

If the first found issue has been the basis of a strain regulation, made ??no calculations. You can change this version to not be calculated if, for instance. want to simulate with new manual parameter phrase. After completing the calculation marked this edition to be calculated.

Start forecast

and distribution of simulation made ??using the actual figures for the distribution and sale of a specified number of instances. All clout values ??equal to 100 / number of processed versions, as long as this number is greater than the penetration value

The following calculation is performed for the individual editions.

simulated sales

translated into the actual number sold from the version with smaller (and we are not by calculating start prognosis):
  • It actually sold equals actual distribution (sold out), why simulated sale conferred abandoned percent surcharge rounded up to the nearest integer, that is a guess at how much the dealer could have sold. Ie there is no surcharge if sold out, but an effect on sales forecast at sold out.
  • If we are to determine the parameter values ??(ie not calculate new strain) and simulated sales is greater than the simulated distribution, be simulated sale for simulated distribution.
  • Dealer sales observation is unusual defined as a deviation from the sales forecast of more than a number of times spread in less than a number of successive versions, so the observation is included in the calculation.

There computed thus a simulated return on the basis of the simulated distribution and sales, and calculate a margin for the edition.

There is now calculated a new sales forecast and simulated distribution.

  • New sales forecast is calculated as simulated sale times clout divided by previous sales forecast times 100 minus impact.
  • The spread is calculated as the absolute difference between sales forecast and simulated sale. New spreading allowance shall be calculated as current proliferation times clout divided by past proliferation supplement times 100 minus impact. You can dampen the effect of spreading the appendix (or approximate it 1) using the square root of spreading the charge.
  • Service supplement
  • calculated as a percentage addition to the sales forecast plus spread appendix. You can dampen the effect of service allowance (or approximate it 1) using the square root of service allowance.

You could say that salgsprognosens and spread the supplement govern differently depending on whether the dealer is showing an upward or downward. If the dealer is on the rise, both sales forecast and spread supplements provide merdistribution, whereas if he is declining to forecast sales pull down and spread the supplement upwards.

One should be aware that calculations are made from scratch, ie by changes in parameter values ??changed also the starting point for new sales forecast and spread surcharges.

simulated distribution

Thus sales forecast plus spread allowance plus service supplement rounded with less:
  • Sales forecast is less a stated minimum decimal why simulated distribution is set to 0; This is, for example. to avoid that if sales forecast plus spread allowance plus service surcharge is 0.5 rounded up to the first This can also be seen as a brake on nulsalg for a longer period (depending on the impact on sales forecast and distribution).

Tribe

The parameter setup servicetilllæg and impact on sales forecast and spread allowance which would have given the greatest contribution margin in a given period, for example. the last six years, used to calculate the new distribution forecast, as above, with few exceptions, and thus strain and calculated quantities. If multiple parameter settings give the same contribution, select it with lowest service charges and low response rate, respectively sales forecast and spread surcharges.

The strain is given unless:

  • The dealer is marked for not controllable
  • The trunk is manually changed within a given number of instances.
  • Simulated distribution is less than the minimum delivery why simulated distribution set to minimum delivery.

By abandonment of sales percentage is calculated Reprints from the total sales forecast to open and temporarily closed customers divided by sales percentage. This edition may vary from the calculated warehouses: Thus, if we want to distribute more than the calculated warehouses made ??following corrections adjustable strains:

  • Sellers with highest spreading supplementary times sales forecast is 1 more second highest one more until the difference is canceled out. If two traders have the same spread Appendix select the highest strain first.

If we want to distribute less than the calculated warehouses made ??following corrections adjustable strains:

  • Sellers with highest service surcharges times sales forecast is one less second highest one less until the difference is eliminated or service charge is 0th
  • Sellers with highest spreading supplementary times sales forecast is one less second highest one less until the difference is eliminated or spreading the charge is 0th
  • Sellers with highest sales forecast for 1 smaller, second highest one less until the difference is canceled out.

After completing the calculation marked the publication of that may be made of the trunk.

strain Approval

After completing the calculation print a strain change leaf on dealers whose tribe will be amended by approval. It may mark the last issue of not being calculated, change parameter setup and simulate again.

Upon approval of the individual publications, transferred new strain to the current strain.

 

 

 

(Sale-13)

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