distribution Model

distribution Simulation

Versions with selling day in a given period (the last 3 years), the following are met, analyzed for the individual dealer.

  • Accept return date
  • must be exceeded. For retailers starting with 3 (Greenland and Faroe Islands) must accept the return date be exceeded by 40 days.
  • The edition can not be checked for it to be excluded from the forecast.
  • Series may not have their shelf in one of the given abnormal sales periods, for example. Easter.

If the first found issue has been the basis of a previous strain regulation, made ??no calculations. You can change this version to not be calculated if, for instance. want to simulate with new manual parameter phrase. After completing the calculation marked this edition to be calculated.

Pr. Dealer calculated on versions which the following are met:

  • The first found text must be less than 500 days old.
  • The first found text must be after 01/09/2004 or publication indsalgs period must be active or frequency must be or full annual. Indsalgs period for dailies 30 editions, magazines 8 editions, 14-day leaves 6 month leaves 5 and 2 monthly papers fourth All other 3 versions.
  • Version must be distributed, or custom order to the dealer.
  • The dealer must not have a negative net sales of series (return greater than the distribution)
  • The dealer must have had or parcel delivery errors.
  • Dealer sales observation is not unusual, defined as a deviation from the sales forecast of more than a number of times spread in less than a number of successive versions of the same swing direction. This means that if several consecutive udgavers sales observation is unusual in the same direction (rising or falling sales), they are perhaps not so unusual after all. This only applies to the distribution of more than 3 units, where sales are lower than forecast, or are sold out.

Start forecast

and distribution of simulation made ??using the actual figures for the distribution and sales and the forecast is calculated based on desired sales percent. This can be done for a given number of instances for new distributors. All clout values ??equal to 100 / number of processed versions, as long as this number is greater than the penetration value.

The following calculation is performed for the individual editions.

simulated sales

translated into the actual number sold from the version with smaller (and we are not by calculating start prognosis):
  • It actually sold equals actual distribution (sold out), why simulated sale conferred abandoned percent surcharge rounded up to the nearest integer, that is a guess at how much the dealer could have sold, unless this exceeds the simulated strain. Ie there is no surcharge if sold out, but an effect on sales forecast at sold out.

There is now calculated a new sales forecast and dispersal

  • New sales forecast is calculated as simulated sale times clout divided by previous sales forecast times 100 minus impact. Salgsprognosens clout is a measure of how quickly sales forecast must rule on changes in actual sales, which broadly can say that 20 is slow and 60 is fast.
  • The spread is calculated as the absolute difference between sales forecast and actual sales. New spreading allowance shall be calculated as current proliferation times clout divided by past proliferation supplement times 100 minus impact. Spreading addendum clout is a measure of how quickly spreading the charge should rule on changes to the sales forecast and actual sales, which broadly can say that 20 is slow and 60 is fast. (See also unusual sales observations and other exemptions for calculation) You can dampen the effect of spreading the appendix (or approximate it 1) using the square root of spreading the charge.
  • Deleted. Appendix
  • calculated as a percentage addition to the sales forecast plus spread appendix. You can dampen the effect of service allowance (or approximate it 1) using the square root of the supplement. This supplement should not be confused with the later calculated sales percent surcharge.

You could say that salgsprognosens and spread the supplement govern differently depending on whether the dealer is showing an upward or downward. If the dealer is on the rise, both sales forecast and spread supplements provide merdistribution, whereas if he is declining to forecast sales pull down and spread the supplement upwards.

One should be aware that the calculations are done by the, ie by changes in parameter values ??changed also the starting point for new sales forecast and spread surcharges.

new distribution

Thus sales forecast plus spread allowance plus supplementary rounded up unless:
  • The sales forecast is less than a specified minimum decimal why simulated distribution is set to 0; This is, for example. to avoid that if sales forecast plus spread allowance plus surcharge is 0.5 rounded up to the first This can also be seen as a brake on nulsalg for a longer period (depending on the impact on sales forecast and distribution). This calculation is ignored if the publication is the order intake (order intake is defined as the last wave of the supply, in which there has been a gap of 3 editions). Indsalgs period may be multiplied by a constant depending on the dealer.

Tribe

The trunk is so determined and possibly amended) unless:

  • The dealer has a solid sales rate, wherein the strain is set to forecast * 100 / sales percentage.
  • The dealer is marked for not controllable
  • The trunk is manually changed within a given number of instances.
  • Simulated distribution is less than the minimum delivery why simulated distribution set to minimum delivery.
  • Stuttering is a subscription.
  • The dealer is closed (temporarily).

By abandonment of sales percentage is calculated Reprints from the total sales forecast to open and temporarily closed customers divided by sales percentage. This edition may vary from the calculated warehouses: Thus, if we want to distribute more than the calculated warehouses made ??following corrections adjustable strains:

  • Sellers with highest strain (new distribution) get a supplement of the square root of sales forecast plus spread surcharge, second highest same calculation until the difference is canceled out. The throughput is repeated until the difference is eliminated ..

If we want to distribute less made ??nothing.

After completing the calculation marked the publication of that changes have been made of the trunk.

(Sale-13)

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